Did Obama knock Merkley off DSCC list?

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama: Photo by Getty ImagesOn Friday a record breaking 2.2 million ballots were mailed to registered voters in Oregon. The Beaver State’s May 20 mail-in primary was supposed to generate interest, but no one ever expected it to be this exciting or confusing.

Much of the excitement is over the Democratic presidential contest. As Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battle for every state, Oregon is seen as a must win for Obama. As a result the Obama campaign has poured significant recources trying to drive turnout.

Oregon was also supposed to be home to one of the country’s most competitive U.S. Senate contests. Oregon’s Republican freshman Sen. Gordon Smith -- like Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) and Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) -- began this cycle as one of the top targets of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

But earlier this month DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer downgraded Oregon to his second tier of targeted states. The reason for the downgrade is probably Obama.

The DSCC’s top recruit was state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Compared to his challenger, Portland activist Steve Novick, Merkley was long considered to be the Democratic establishment’s choice as well as the choice of the moderates. While officially the DSCC did not announce their endorsement for anyone all signs pointed to Merkeley being the Democratic nominee and being tough challenger to Smith.

For months campaign strategies were developed and followed. However, none of these plans factored in that the Democratic presidential primary race to continue. The ripple effect could have two different impacts. First, the increased amount of new voter registration, particularly among those aged 18-24, could help a candidate like the more liberal Novick. But, second, because the presidential primary is sucking up much of the oxygen it is harder for challengers to be heard.

But in this case the larger ripple might be that Merkley is a falling national star and Oregon a smaller priority for the DSCC. Now there are three dynamics to watch in the Senate primary.

First, Novick could actually beat Merkley with high turnout among new, non-establishment voters. Second, Merkley could pull off a close victory, but it calls into question how strong of a candidate Merkley could be against Smith. But third, the strong challenge of Novick has forced Merkley to go further to the left and allowing Smith to play to the unoccupied center.

Novick is not the only one in Oregon benefitting from Obama candidacy. Attorney General candidate John Kroger is also benefitting from Obama in his primary against state Rep. Greg Macpherson.

And here is where the Obama coattails get really interesting. If Kroger is able to get through the primary with Obama support then he is the leading Democrat on the bench for U.S. Senate or Governor.

What is happening in Oregon is not unique. On Tuesday voters in Indiana and North Carolina will go to the polls and not just choose between Obama and Clinton, but also choose nominees for Congress and governor.

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