Will McCain share convention stage with Bush and Cheney?

Does John McCain want George W. Bush in a prime time convention role?: Getty Images Photo
These are soul searching times for Republicans. After losing their majorities in the U.S. House and Senate in 2006, the party thought that there would surely be a natural rebound in 2008. But in the time since President Bush's approval ratings have failed to rise above 35 percent and Democrats have been showing up in record numbers to vote in their presidential primaries, things have gotten even worse: Last Tuesday's win for Democrats in Mississippi marks the third special House election in a row where Democrats won a traditionally Republican seat.

The situation led U.S. Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a respected Republican strategist and former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, to suggest in a memo that "the Republican brand is in the trash can ... if we were dog food, they would take us off the shelf." Heeding his own advice, he is retiring at the end of the year. Over the weekend, Davis suggested the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) would lose the election by 20 points.

So what then? In The Boston Globe, there is discussion over how it will get worse for Republicans unless they chart a new way. In the Los Angeles Times there is a debate about what that new way might look like. The New York Times explains how McCain, the new leader, wants to make the party follow him to change the GOP.

Last week I used this space to explore the possibilities of who McCain might pick as his convention keynote speaker in St. Paul. However, there is a more fundamental question for McCain at the Republican National Convention. What do you do with President Bush and Vice President Cheney? McCain has to be thinking that Bush is the president of the United States and the leader of the party for the past eight years so surely he gets a speaking slot, right? But it comes at the time when national conventions have been the key moment where parties and candidates define themselves. Is it helpful to have such an unpopular president speak when McCain is trying to take the party in a different direction?

History can point McCain to two things as a guide. First, it is entirely the nominee's call, not the party establishment. Second, the rule when it comes to an outgoing president is simple: When the commander in chief is popular, he speaks; when he isn't, he doesn't.
Hubert Humphrey didn't complain that Lyndon Johnson skipped the '68 convention in Chicago: Getty Images Photo

At the 1968 Democratic National Convention, President Lyndon Johnson spared Hubert Humphrey the image of him speaking or standing next to him. Given the violence at that convention the Secret Service probably agreed with the decision. But if there was any question, when Humphrey mentioned LBJ in his is nomination speech, he was booed. It should also be no surprise that Richard Nixon wasn't invited to the 1976 Republican convention. In fact, Gerald Ford didn't even mention him in his speech though he did address the circumstances by which he became president.

The first president to be term-limited under the constitution, Dwight Eisenhower, was a popular figure and spoke at the 1960 convention. In 1988, Ronald Reagan, also a popular figure, spoke at the convention and Bill Clinton spoke at the 2000 convention and he later addressed the 2004 Democratic convention as well.

But unlike Nixon, Humphrey and Al Gore, McCain has an incumbent president who his liked by his party base, but is highly unpopular nationwide. Signs at the New Hampshire Democratic Party convention Saturday said it all "McCain/Bush: No Third Bush Term."

As was demonstrated last week, however, the Bush-McCain relationship can have a positive combination as well. Bush used a speech at the Israeli Knesset to suggest Obama was weak on foreign policy. The issue dominated the news for at least two days and McCain quickly said he agreed with the statement.

There are currently five ways this could play out: Bush could speak, he could attend and not speak, or Bush may not attend at all. Next to that there are some worst case scenarios.

President Bush speaks: If there is a general default choice, this could be it. Bush is, after all, supposedly the most powerful man in the world. Bush speaking at the convention could have a positive purpose. First, Bush could talk directly to conservative activists who are lukewarm about McCain. Second, if the election is defined by change versus experience, Bush can say that in a time of foreign policy challenges, McCain is the best choice. If Bush were to speak on the first day of the convention, it would give McCain plenty of time to show how he is different.

President Bush attends, but doesn't speak: Having the president sit in a skybox, but not addressing the convention in prime time could be a bit of a compromise. Bush's presence there will be important to show party unity, but would avoid driving the news cycle during a time that's supposed to be all about the McCain brand.

President Bush does not attend at all: If Bush does not attend, it might actually do more harm than good within the party. But it could help McCain control the message more to swing voters. It would be unprecedented that a sitting popular president does not attend the convention, but Bush might find it a convenient time to go on a trip to Europe or Asia and discuss foreign policy.

Next to worst case scenario: One the worst situations for McCain would be if both Bush and Cheney demand to speak in prime time against McCain's wishes. It would be hard for McCain to refuse them and if word leaked that he did deny them time McCain's problem with the base would be irreparable.

The worst case scenario: Along with Bush and Cheney, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld also demands prime time speaking spot.

Use the comment section below to suggest which you think would be best politically for McCain.

James W. Pindell is Politicker.com's managing editor.