Avakian departure changes dynamic of SecState race

With a source close to Sen. Brad Avakian confirming the Senator’s succession of Dan Gardner as Labor Commissioner, the question that begs asking is what effect his withdrawal will have on the dynamic in the race for Secretary of State.

Avakian’s departure leaves Sens. Kate Brown, Vicki Walker and Rick Metsger in the running, and puts them into competition for a significant block of active democratic voters in Washington County.

Washington County has been an Avakian stronghold in previous races; the Senator enjoyed a three to one vote advantage in 2006.

“Now this Loyal base of support is completely up for grabs,” according to Jack Isselmann, a partner in the Government Relations Practice Group at Tonkon Torp.

Brown and Metsger, who have led Walker in fundraising, are expected to enjoy the benefit of the votes that once would have been Avakian’s, but the ultimate outcome is a toss-up between geography and ideology.

Brown, from Portland, would enjoy an urban allure in the area, although Metsger—who generally appeals to more rural and agricultural voters—spent many years as a journalist at KOIN-TV, a Portland based station. Many of the voters in the county tend to be more moderate Democrats, which might suggest Metsger will have more appeal, according to Isselmann.

“Senator Brown has the advantage of geography, but Sen. Metsger might have the advantage of ideology in Washington County,” Isselmann said.

Metsger, now the only man in the race, might also benefit from the new gender differential. Although there are more registered women Democrats in the county, it is possible that their votes will split between Brown and Walker in the primary, making way for Metsger.

Avakian’s departure further raises the issue of the interests; many of the different communities, including timber, business, agriculture, and unions, are operating under the banner of initiative reform. Before Avakian’s decampment, the communities were looking at a very crowded ballot, and as are many decisions, support of candidates is a function of an organization’s resources. Not only does Avakian’s departure narrow the number field, it helps to clarify the ideological one.

“It becomes clearer to them where to go. There are two front-running Democrats [Metsger and Brown] who represent each end of the Democratic Party and a there is a clear divide. It makes it easier for them to get involved in the race,” an insider said.

With the voter pamphlet deadline looming tomorrow, it looks like labor organizations and other groups will be working late tonight trying to decide which candidate to throw their support behind.

The Democratic insider said he believes it is likely that the Metsger campaign will now become a focus for the business and timber communities, while it is likely that all organized labor will follow the OEA and rally around Brown.

One thing is for certain, if the next Secretary of State is a Democrat, he or she will “enter office faced with a lot of expectations from interest groups, and high on that list will be initiative reform,” Isselmann said.