Bergstein: Democrats shouldn't count Smith out

Last Spring, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) announced plans to orchestrate a series of joint fundraising events in an effort to bolster four GOP Senators who, by their calculations, are confronting the most ominous reelection prospects.

Gordon Smith made the list, along with Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Susan Collins of Maine, and John Sununu of New Hampshire.

While Coleman is arguably the most vulnerable of the four, facing a formidable challenge from Al Franken, the level of Smith's vulnerability has been in some dispute.

Democrats in-state and in D.C. have pointed to a poll the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee conducted last month showing Smith at a dismal 33% approval, but other data, including a SurveyUSA poll from October, shows Smith with just shy of 50% approval. But not even that poll holds entirely promising news for Smith, with 42% of respondents disapproving of his job performance.

Still, according to Oregon political wizard Len Bergstein, the Democrats would be foolish to pop the champagne corks at this point.

"Conventional wisdom really has to be thrown out this election, in part because the major issues that will drive the U.S. Senate race in Oregon are so overwhelming, and they are outside of the control of any of the candidates," Bergstein said, explaining that Iraq, Iran, and other world affairs are in such a fragile state that predictions are enormously difficult at this point.

The national punditry have repeatedly characterized the '08 election as a "change election", but Bergstein, while he acknowledges that nationally there is an appetite for change, said he's not entirely convinced yet that the change dynamic will sweep through every Senate or Congressional race like a tidal wave.

"I just don't see it right now. Things are still in flux, and if anybody on the Democratic side is counting on a huge shift in tide, I think they're mistaken, because Oregonians have countered that trend in the past," he said.

Marc Siegel, Communications Director for the Oregon Democrats, was quick to dismiss the perception that his party has grown overconfident in regards to knocking off Smith next year, but was eager to hammer Smith on a host of issues he believes will give the Democratic candidate the upper hand.

"I think that People on both sides expect this to be a tough, competitive race, but the ingredients that Smith has coming into this race - someone who has been dishonest with Oregonians on the Iraq war and other issues, someone who is incapable of representing Oregonians' interests in Washington D.C. - those ingredients simply don't add up to a successful incumbent," he said.

Siegel and other Democrats enjoy citing voting statistics that show Smith supporting President Bush 90% of the time, but Smith has very publicly broken with the White House on Iraq, opposing the President's troop surge plan, and this summer, he joined Coleman, Collins, and Sununu in supporting Democrat Jim Webb's amendment that would have placed limitations on troop deployment.

But Democrats and anti-war critics aren't buying it, and, convinced that Smith's shift on the war is a transparent act of political desperation, they have continued to portray him as a far-right conservative, and a Bush sycophant.

"Gordon Smith has proven that he can't even trust himself on the issue of Iraq, because since he declared his opposition to the war last December, he has consistently voted to keep our troops there and to prolong the conflict," Siegel said, adding that Smith also had a record on abortion and environmental issues that is out of touch with Oregonians.

John Randall, a spokesman for the NRSC, firmly rejected the characterization of Smith as a right-winger, and argued his moderate positions reflect the will of the Oregon electorate.

"Look, you never take anything for granted in politics, so obviously we're taking Senator Smith's reelection seriously, but we feel he's running against a weak candidate," he said, expressing his belief that neither Jeff Merkley nor Steve Novick pose much of a threat, and pointing out that Merkley was tapped only after some prominent members of the Oregon Congressional delegation declined to run because of cushy committee seats they now hold.

"The fact of the matter is, Gordon Smith is an absolute moderate with a record that is very favorable in his state, and that makes him a very tough candidate to run against," Randall said.

Both parties seem poised to move forward with a Merkley-Smith showdown, but Bergstein suggests that the volatility of the race can cut both ways, and that he would certainly not count out Novick's bid for the Democratic nomination.

"Steve Novick presents a picture-perfect challenger in a change election, and he also is the kind of guy who can really appeal to the Democratic base, and you've got a hardcore, energized electorate, so the primary really comes down to mobilization," he said.