Merkley camp calls new poll 'historic,' Smith camp says it's 'questionable'

Democrats reacted ecstatically on Wednesday to the news that Oregon House Speaker and U.S Senate candidate Jeff Merkley (D-Portland) was beating U.S. Senator Gordon Smith (R-Pendleton) in the latest Rasmussen poll 43 to 41 percent.

“It’s historic, frankly,” Merkley campaign spokesman Matt Canter said. “This is the first time any Democrat has polled ahead of Gordon Smith since he ran against Ron Wyden in ’96, and we all know what happened there.”

The numbers, which are within the margin of error, mark the first time that Smith has found himself behind since the race with Merkley began.

“People just want change,” Canter said. “And they want a new leader.”

On the other hand, the Smith campaign was quick to blame the messenger.

“These are questionable numbers from a questionable pollster,” said Smith campaign spokeswoman Lindsay Gilbride.

The poll is the second piece of bad news for the Smith campaign this week. On Monday both campaigns released their second quarter fundraising numbers, and Merkley out raised Smith 1.42 million to Smith’s 1.35 million.

Wednesday morning the Rasmussen poll showing that Smith’s nine-point lead in their poll in June has evaporated to a two point deficit.

Rasmussen also says that any incumbent candidate that polls below 50 percent is considered vulnerable, and Smith has never polled higher than 48 percent. But Gilbride says Smith expected a competitive election, and is ready to go onward.

“Gordon Smith is running an aggressive campaign contrasting his independent, bipartisan leadership to bridge the urban-rural divide and keep taxes low with Merkley's hyper partisan, tax-happy record,” Gilbride said.

The good news for Smith is that with $4.47 million cash on hand, he does have the money to continue running television ads, including the one he released on Monday attacking Merkley’s voting record on taxes in the Oregon House.

“He’s running the most negative campaign in the country, and the negative ads are going to get worse and worse,” Canter said. “He was the first Republican Senate candidate to air a negative ad. He was the only incumbent to air negative ads during a primary. And up until last week [when Kansas Senator Pat Robinson began running attack ads] he was the only incumbent Republican Senator to run negative ads.”

But despite Smith’s ability to flood the airwaves, Oregon Democratic Party officials believe that these numbers are a sign of a changing attitude within the Oregon electorate.

“It shows that despite the fact that Gordon Smith is running the most negative campaign in the country, Oregonians are still moving toward Jeff Merkley,” said DPO spokesman Marc Siegel.  “And as Oregonians learn more about Gordon Smith’s voting record with George W. Bush, they will continue gravitating toward Merkley.”