UPDATED: Cook Report says Senate seat a tossup

An increasingly hostile climate for Republican candidates is the main reason that the Oregon Senate race was reclassified as a “toss up” race instead of a “leans Republican” race by The Charles Cook Political Report on Thursday.

While the highly-regarded report praised Smith as a solid candidate and suggested that Merkley would not be able to keep up with the incumbent financially, it warned that even if Smith runs a flawless campaign, anti-Republican sentiment sweeping through voters fed up with war, an ailing economy, and high gas prices may lead to his downfall in November.

“Having to run against a bad political climate, one over which he has no control and cannot change, is an entirely different story,” the report said. “As such, the circumstances in this race warrant moving it to the Toss Up column.”

The Cook Report also blames Republican Party operatives, who they say wrote off the race because Smith lost his original bid to the Senate in a special election in 1996 and because they mistakenly assume that Oregon, with its four Democratic Representatives and one Democratic Senator, is a solid blue state.

While it praised Smith for going on the offensive to demonstrate the more moderate aspects of his record, the report also acknowledges that Democrats have been successful in tying Smith to President George W. Bush whenever possible.

The report wasn’t particularly kind to Merkley either. While it credited the Democratic nominee for his work to push his party’s agenda through the state legislature in 2007, it also said his shortcomings, including his demeanor and his lack of fundraising skills, may hinder him in his mission to topple the incumbent.

“Merkley, who is certainly intelligent and accomplished, is sorely lacking in candidate skills,” the report said. “While he seems somewhat more comfortable in the role of statewide candidate than he did a couple of months ago, he still comes across as awkward and speaks in talking points that make him appear overly scripted.”

The report questioned Merkley’s ability to compete with Smith financially, but it said nothing about the fact that Merkley outraised Smith in the second quarter of this election year.

However, it acknowledged that since Smith has a campaign war chest approximately eight times as large as his opponent's, Merkley already is relying heavily on the Democratic Party for support.

The report said that the recent controversial ads run by the Democratic Party of Oregon that feature Merkley may be a sign that Merkley is a candidate that has to be “propped up.”

But an election is about votes, not funds, and in the end the report acknowledged that Smith’s fate with voters may simply be out of his hands.

“The political climate may be Smith’s real opponent,” the report said. “Merkley is simply the personification of the challenge the Republican faces.”