Smith struggles to find, keep support among Democrats

A poll released Wednesday showing Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Pendleton) and Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D-Portland) in a virtual dead heat revealed that a large portion of Democratic voters that previously supported the Republican incumbent are now supporting the Democratic challenger.

Smith has been touting his cross-over appeal throughout the campaign, with Oregon Democrats pledging their support and a Barack Obama press release appearing in his most recent campaign ad.

The poll, taken on July 15, showed that 14 percent of Democratic voters said they were going to vote for Smith. That number is down from 23 percent a month ago.

“Democrats are running away from a Republican incumbent,” said lobbyist Len Bergstein. “This is a reflection of broader political trends. It’s something that’s in the water, in the air. They are moving away even though a Republican incumbent is making a good case to be re-elected.”

If that is true, then these numbers may reveal Smith’s biggest challenge leading up to the election: Not only will he have to run against the Democratic Party; he will have to run against the Republican Party as well.

Smith has always been successful at proving to voters that he is a moderate Republican. This campaign he has run campaign ads touting the work he did with Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) on AIDS, and work he did with Democratic Senator and U.S Presidential candidate Barack Obama on fuel standards. By showing that he can work with both Democrats and Republicans, Smith is trying to show that despite his party affiliation, he has the ability to represent different interests.

“The campaign has done a good job getting the message out that he is not going to represent one ideology, he is going to represent one state,” said John Randall, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

But despite his best efforts, his poll numbers are declining among Democratic voters. Bergstein believes that this may not be because of what Smith has done, but rather, Smith’s party connection to the current Republican administration.

“Maybe Democrats are coming home to roost, but Gordon hasn’t given them a lot of reasons to run away,” Bergstein said. “My guess is that the results are surprising to both Smith and Merkley.”

Former labor commissioner Jack Roberts doesn’t believe Smith has lost a lot of Democratic support.

“Look at the voter registration edge the Democrats created in the past two years,” Roberts said. “The fact that they are statistically tied in this poll says that Smith is getting a lot of that support.”

To bring back Democrats he may have lost, Bergstein believes that Smith must do two things. First, he must show that he is not the same kind of Republican that people blame for ongoing war, climate change and soaring gas prices.

“He needs to show he’s a different kind of guy,” Bergstein said. “He needs to show he’s a moderate. And I think he’s framed that issue well.”

The second thing Bergstein thinks Smith needs to do is rise above his party.

“Are Oregonians willing to give him and his party another shot?” Bergstein asked. “I think he’s losing that argument. So I think he’s got to keep doing what he’s doing. And hope something in the economy turns around so that people think they can trust him.”

Until then, Smith may find himself in the strange new world of being behind in the polls. But, as Roberts believes, there is life after the poll, and there are still three and a half months till Election Day. A lot can happen between now and then.

“I think that anybody that doesn’t expect this race to be incredibly close is kidding themselves,” Roberts said.