August 7, 2008 - 3:23pm
Poll: Smith leads Merkley by 12
By Britten ChaseU.S. Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Pendleton) scores a comfortable lead over Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D-Portland) in the Senate race, a new SurveyUSA Poll finds. The incumbent Republican leads the Oregon House Speaker 49 percent to 37 percent, according to the numbers released Thursday.
Smith campaign spokeswoman Lindsay Gilbride was optimistic about the campaign's chances.
"We fully expect this to be a competitive election, but we fully expect Gordon Smith to win."
The Merkley campaign questioned the poll's findings.
“If you look at the presidential poll that also came out, it shows Obama beating McCain by 3 points,” Merkley spokesman Matt Canter said, referring to the results of the presidential poll Survey USA conducted in Oregon, which showed U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) leading U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) 48 percent to 45 percent. “I think many people in politics in Oregon will tell you he leads McCain by more than that, so that may be a sign that the sample may lean a little more conservative.”
Canter remained upbeat about Merkley's chances.
“There is no question that this is one of the hottest Senate races in the country,” Canter said. “No poll has shown Smith above 50 percent, which means that more than half of Oregon voters are willing to vote against Gordon Smith.”
The poll consisted of 900 Oregonians polled between August 2 and August 4, and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
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bad polling sample
It's clear this was a bad sample.
Swing State Project's James L.:
A few things seem a bit funky here, most notably Gordon Smith's improbably high 53-29 performance among voters aged 18-34.
The partisan breakdown of the sample, at 37R-41D-22I, is also perhaps a bit suspect.
In fact, according to the latest voter registration numbers from the OR SoS, Dems have a 43%-33% voter registration advantage over the GOP as of June. That's a significant advantage that you don't see reflected in SUSA's model.
Where is the other candidate?
Where is Dave Brownlow from the Constitution Party? This is bad polling, because all the candidates arn't listed. What happened to objectivity in reporting? This is why less than half the qualified voters don't even bother to get registared.
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