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PolitickerOR Partners
August 12, 2008 - 8:14am
News
Poll: Smith leads Merkley by 8
By Britten Chase, PolitickerOR.com ReporterU.S. Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Pendleton) leads Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D-Portland) among Oregon voters 47 percent to 39 percent, a new poll conducted by Rasmussen finds.
That is a stark turnaround from what the poll found in July, when Rasmussen reported that Merkley had a slight lead over Smith. While those numbers prompted the Merkley campaign to call the poll historic, the revelation of these numbers brought on a little more of a subdued mood from the Smith campaign.
"There will be many polls between now and Election Day,” Smith spokeswoman Lindsay Gilbride said. “This is a competitive race. Senator Smith is campaigning hard and we expect a victory in November."
Calls to the Merkley campaign were not immediately returned.
The poll was conducted by telephone to 500 likely voters on August 7, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
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If Politicker wanted
If Politicker wanted Americans to know about an upcoming Senator, Dave Brownlow's poll percentage would also be published.
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I think this poll is about
I think this poll is about right.
40% for Merkley (true blue Dems), 47% for Smith (Republicans and those Democrats that have been "helped" by Smith).
Merkley's challenge will be to take 5% away from Smith. If he can some how manage that then the blue wave should carry Merkley over 50%.
But pulling 5% from Smith will be really, really, really hard.
Smith
Smith is below 50% and leading by fewer than 10 points in a state that will go for Obama. He may prove to be the Lincoln Chafee of 2008.
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You may be right John213.
You may be right John213. But if you are right then Merkley needs to make this election all about the War.
The one problem with that is the war is now back seat to jobs, economy, housing prices, gas prices, etc...
It is easy to point to one vote to blame Smith for the war. Blaming Smith for the economy is a much harder task and doesn't look good in a 10 second sound bite.
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"The poll was conducted by
"The poll was conducted by telephone to 500 likely voters on August 7, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points"
Well that was true but Smith is ruling
and he always rocks
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With low approval ratings at
With low approval ratings at home, Gordon Smith appears to be in serious trouble this year. His ratings in Oregon have been close to that of Pres. Bush, who, despite his absence at the top of the ballot, could still prove to be a drag on Smith's campaign. Though Smith has one of the most moderate records in the Senate, Democrats are poised to snatch this seat.
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Jeffrey Alan Merkley (born
Jeffrey Alan Merkley (born October 24, 1956) is the junior United States Senator-elect from Oregon and the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives. A member of the Democratic Party, Merkley is a five-term member of the Oregon Legislative Assembly representing House District 47, located in eastern Multnomah County within the Portland city limits.
He defeated two-term Republican incumbent Gordon Smith in the 2008 U.S. Senate election, winning by a three percent margin. Merkley will take office in January 2009, to serve in the 111th United States Congress.
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New Poll: Merkley 45%, Smith 40%
Hot on the heels of a Survey USA poll showing Jeff Merkley with a 2-point lead comes the latest Research 2000/Daily Kos poll, putting Merkley up by five. In this poll, which surveyed 600 Oregonians using a random-dialing method, Merkley leads in some important demographics. Predictably, he leads among young voters (+12%), but he also has a lead among all age categories except those over 60. The race is tied among men, but Merkley holds a ten-point advantage among women. (Detail below the jump.)
More good news: independents favor Merkley marginally (43%-41%), but Democrats are the most undecided group, at 11%. If Merkley can seal the deal with these voters, this poll suggests he will have a significant advantage going into November. The demographic breakdown of respondents was: Democrats 43%, Republicans 36%, and independents 21%.
The poll also asked respondents about the Presidential race, and voters favored Obama 53%-39%. Obama enjoys an 18-point advantage among independents, a 24-point lead among women, and is favored by voters of all ages.
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Democrat Jeff Merkley has
Democrat Jeff Merkley has leapt from Oregon's statehouse to the U.S. Senate, ousting two-term Republican Gordon Smith after an expensive, high-stakes contest that will help shift the balance of power in Washington.
The Oregonian projects that Merkley will squeak by Smith by the time all votes are counted.
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Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. interviewed 400 likely Democratic voters across the state from May 8 to 10, in a poll conducted for the Portland Tribune and FOX 12 News.
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