Analysts: Here are the keys to success in the Senate debate

For months Oregon's U.S Senate candidates have been battling each other with television advertising and press releases, but Thursday Gordon Smith and Jeff Merkley will engage each other in their first face-to-face debate of the race.

The race between the incumbent Republican and the challenging Democrat is a dead heat, according to the poll and political observers around the country are calling it one of the most competitive - and most negative - Senate contests of the year.

While the tone of this first debate is still anyone's guess, the two candidates have the chance to put the attacks aside and discuss the issues. At least, according to some of the most respected observers of Oregon politics, that's what they should do.

"They have to get beyond the negative ads," said Republican Jack Roberts, a former labor commissioner. "I've never seen so much voter anger at ads as I have with these two candidates."

The debate platform will allow for both candidates to go slightly more in depth on their policies and to delve into more detail on what they want to do for voters.

Merkley seems to have had the momentum recently. By drawing even with Smith in the polls, Merkley has erased what in August was a measurable lead for Smith. And, with the Merkley campaign's Tuesday announcement that it raised over two million dollars in the third fundraising quarter, Merkley picked up solid financial support.

But Smith, who had been in Washington, D.C., until recently dealing with the nation's financial crisis, will now be turning his full attention to the race. He's always held a generous cash-on-hand advantage over the Oregon House Speaker, and he hasn't been afraid to spend it on television and radio ads.

Advice for Smith: Show off your record

Even as Smith has seen his poll numbers steadily fall as his disapproval numbers have trended steadily upward, the incumbent Senator has something Merkley does not: 12 years of working in the Senate. If he wants to win, experts said, he will remind voters what he's done in that time.

Democratic lobbyist Len Bergstein is puzzled as to why Smith has not been touting his own accomplishments all along. But, he said, Thursday night will be Smith's time to tell Oregonians what he has done during his two terms in the Senate.

"Any U.S. Senator, Gordon Smith included, has a lot of stuff he can talk about," Bergstein said. "He's been there, he's been involved, he needs to tell voters that. This is how he's got to get his message to the end line. You don't have to pull out 20 things you've done, just a couple of things."

Robert Eisinger, a professor of political science at Lewis and Clark College in Portland, agreed that Smith needed to focus his energy on featuring his own record instead of criticizing Merkley's.

"He needs to extol his virtues," Eisinger said. "He needs to talk about working with legislators that show work from both sides of the aisle. He may vote with Bush 85 percent of the time, but that still makes Gordon Smith one of the most likely to break away from the Republican Party."

Eisinger also pointed to Smith's recent vote in favor of an $850 billion bailout package for financial institutions in crisis. Merkley would be sure to bring it up, Eisinger said, but Smith could use that vote to show how he stood in the face of criticism and did what he thought best.

"Gordon Smith needs to say to people, ‘When times were tough, I did the politically unpopular thing,'" Eisigner said.

Advice for Merkley: Tell people what you will do for them

Bergstein and Roberts, whose opinion differ on most issues, agreed on one point: If Merkley wants to be elected, he needs to tell voters how he will help them.

"People will be looking for some solutions," Bergstein said. "They want someone who talks about people problems instead of candidate problems."

Roberts said that Merkley has been very focused on connecting Smith to the Bush administration, but that he has gotten all he can out of that line of attack and needs to start showing people that he can make a difference if they send him to Washington.

"Merkley has to prove there is some substance there," Roberts said. "He's gone as far as he can go bashing Gordon Smith. He has to give people a reason to vote for him."

But with the economy and President Bush's popularity both tanking in the Beaver State, Eisinger thinks that the more Merkley can connect the incumbent senator to the financial crisis, the better off he will be.

"Jeff Merkley has to associate Gordon Smith with George W. Bush and the Republican Party," Eisigner said. "It will be a guilt by association strategy."

Advice for both: Don't blow it, you're almost out of time

All three analysts agreed that, without a major gaffe, there is little chance that the debates will make or break the race. Both candidates are political veterans, they said, well polished, and stay on message.

"Unless someone totally blows it and creates some scandal, this race will remain close," Roberts said. "I don't think there is going to be huge momentum for anyone after these debates. But as close as it is, there could be enough to make a difference."

With ballots being sent to mailboxes by the end of next week, both candidates are running short of opportunities to get their message across.

"It's a volatile electorate at this point," Bergstein said. "And this is not a November 4 issue. It's now."

Even if voters mark their ballots based on Smith and Merkley's debate performance, Eisinger said, it is unlikely anyone will be able to determine a winner any time soon.

"This is a race that might not be determined by the time the presidential race is determined," said Eisinger. "It would not surprise this political scientist if they are counting ballots beyond Election Day."

Thursday's debate will take place at the KGW Studios in Portland at 7 p.m. Monday's debate will take place at the KOBI Studios in Medford at 7 p.m.