State House: GOP needs to save incumbents to stave off Dem supermajority

With the exception of the U.S Senate race, the talk in Oregon this election cycle has centered on just how big the Democrats will win.

The story is the same on the State House level. The Dem’s currently have a 31-29 advantage in the House, but on Tuesday they are hoping to pick up five seats, and the much coveted State House “super-majority” status.

House Democrats are energized at the prospect of picking up House seats being vacated by outgoing State Reps. Donna Nelson (R-McMinnville), Patti Smith (R-Corbett) and Wayne Scott (R-Oregon City). They also seen an opportunity to capture the HD-49 seat, currently held by outgoing former House Speaker Karen Minnis (R-Wood Village) and bitterly contested by State House candidates John Nelsen (R-Wood Village) and Nick Kahl (D-Portland).

In the event that Republicans retake all four seats, they will still need to defend at least five incumbents who are facing serious re-election challenges. Here are six incumbents to keep an eye on:

Rep. John Lim (R-Gresham): A lot has changed in Gresham since Lim first started representing the town in 1992, first in the state senate and then in the state house. The most notable change has been the surging Democratic voter registration, thanks to Barack Obama’s popularity in East County. To make matters more difficult for Lim, House Dems think that State House candidate Greg Matthews (D-Portland), a firefighter and community leader, can oust the state’s longest-serving state legislator.

Rep. Scott Bruun (R-West Linn): Bruun has a reputation as a moderate Republican in the Oregon House. But he’s run up against State House candidate Michele Eberle (D-West Linn) and a well-financed FuturePAC that is determined to paint him as a hard right winger on abortion. Bruun won this race 55 percent to 45 percent in 2006; House dems anticipate it will be much closer this time.

Rep. Linda Flores (R-Clackamas): Flores was one of the only greater-Portland area incumbents not to be endorsed by The Oregonian for her re-election campaign. “She's still a textbook example of how little can be accomplished by an ideologue in a legislative career,” the editorial board wrote. State House candidate Brent Barton (D-Clackamas) has been aided by FuturePAC to try and capture Flores’ seat.

Rep. Chuck Burley (R-Bend): This race will be much closer than 2006, when Burley won with 55 percent of the vote. Surging Democratic registration has given their party the registration advantage in this district, and State House candidate Judy Stiegler (D-Bend) has been a tireless campaigner as she looks to erase her 2004 loss to Burley.

Rep. John Huffman (R-The Dalles): Huffman has benefitted from a civil race where he and his opponent, State House candidate Mike Ahern (D-Madras), have focused on issues and stayed away from the attacks. Still, Huffman needs to make significant strides into Republican-rich Jefferson County. However, that’s Ahern’s home county where, as county commissioner, and former owner of Ahern’s grocery store, he enjoys significant name ID and popularity.

Rep: Matt Wingard (R-Wilsonville): Wingard took over for outgoing Rep. Jerry Krummel in August, and since then has been hounded by State House candidate Jessica Adamson (D-Sherwood) and House Democrats for his 2001 confession of hitting his son over the head with a screwdriver. Wingard has the registration edge in the district; if the Democratic attacks don’t work, he could hold onto the seat.

Other GOP incumbents to watch: Rep. Wayne Kreiger (R-Gold Beach), Rep. Sal Esquivel (R-Medford), Rep. Andy Olsen (R-Albany), Rep. Sherrie Sprenger (R-Scio), Rep. Vic Gilliam (R-Silverton), Rep. Kevin Cameron (R-Salem), Rep. Vicki Berger (R-Salem).