Is Obama really leading in Oregon?

A recent poll showed U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) with a 10-point lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president in Oregon, but Jack Roberts, a Republican former labor commissioner, argues that what the poll really proves is that Obama needs help from his running mate to win.

Last week a SurveyUSA poll asked Oregonians: “If there were an election for President of the United States today, would you vote for Republican John McCain? Or Democrat Barack Obama?”

Forty-nine percent of respondents chose Obama, 39 percent chose McCain and 12 percent said they were undecided.

When the poll began adding potential vice-presidential candidates to the ticket, Obama’s lead fluctuated depending on the name-recognition of the ticket. For example, the poll matches McCain with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Obama with Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. In this scenario, the results are virtually tied at 44 percent. When McCain and Huckabee are pitted against Obama and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, the spread is only one percent in favor of the Republicans (43 to 42 percent).

In an interview with PolitickerOR.com, Roberts argued the “poll suggests that he [Obama] needs help, that he needs a strong vice-president on the ticket with him to reassure them that he can do the job.”

“When he is paired with a more obscure vice-president, people are uncertain,” said Roberts. “McCain doesn’t show that same volatility.”

When former U.S Sen. John Edwards is on the ticket with Obama, for instance, that Democratic duo beat McCain and Huckabee 50 percent to 40 percent.

However, Len Bergstein, a Public Affairs Consultant and registered Democrat argued otherwise. Bergstein suggests the vice-presidential candidate is irrelevant. “It is a tactical decision,” Bergstein told PolitickerOR.com. He said a presidential candidate’s running mate “may change any number of things,” but felt strongly that it wouldn’t change a voter’s final decision.

Roberts said that the polls results “reminded me about how little bit is known about Obama.”

Bergstein continued with his defense of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee: “There was a tremendous questioning [of Obama] on a whole bunch of issues.”

Bergstein claims that Republican’s will continue to “sew an incredible amount of doubt” on Obama as part of their campaign strategy.

Roberts’ second argument for McCain was that the issues talked about in the general election were different than those discussed in the primary. He felt McCain may have been trailing Obama in the poll because of the lack of exposure on a broader set of issues.

“People need to be reminded about McCain’s broader past and not just the recent Republican primary,” he said.

McCain is “no newcomer,” Bergstein said. “He’s no spring chicken.”

The SurveyUSA poll surveyed 600 registered voters. The data was collected from May 16 through May 18, 2008 and was released June 2, 2008. Each question had a +/- 4.1 percent margin of error.