Democrats see Smith as vulnerable, but GOP maintains calm

Despite the uncomfortable reality for many Democrats that tensions continue to escalate in the primary race between the two candidates battling to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith next year, Democrats both here in Oregon, as well as inside the beltway, still smell blood in the water.

Speaker Jeff Merkley, the so-called establishment candidate, and his underdog opponent Steve Novick, have consistently portrayed Smith as a firm Bush ally, and have pointed to dismal approval numbers in the low 30’s, which conventional political wizardry suggests spell doom for any incumbent seeking reelection.

But publicly, GOP officials in the state, along with Smith’s aides in Washington, refuse to acknowledge even the most remote sense of concern over the Senator’s reelection prospects.

“Right now all eyes are on the Democratic primary. But when it comes to Senator Gordon Smith, he has done a great job representing Oregon in the United States Senate – and that’s why he is going to be reelected,” argued Brianne Hyder, Communications Director for the Oregon Republican Party.

Hyder described in slightly more detail why she believed the Democrats have grown overly confident in recent months, pointing, in particular, to a poll conducted by Grove Insight, a Portland-based Democratic polling firm in affiliation with the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee in Washington, D.C.

Hyder says she doubts the poll’s validity, which has Smith at a 33% approval among likely voters, and with grim reelection numbers, because of its failure to examine head-to-head data in which Smith is pitted against either of the Democratic candidates. Polling data taken over the summer shows Smith nine points ahead of Merkley, who many believe will be the eventual nominee.

But DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller expressed his confidence that Smith will go down big next November.

“The fact that they are happy with a Senator who has a 33% approval rating shows why Oregon Republicans have been losing so many elections lately,” Miller said, explaining that the Grove poll that Smith’s camp has been so critical of simply did not conduct any head-to head match-ups, not that such data was collected and then intentionally withheld.

“When you do see head-to-head data, name recognition explains any disparities,” Miller said. “Jeff Merkley represents a tiny sliver of the state, and isn’t widely known, but even if he is nine points down, to be within that striking distance when the campaign hasn’t even begun, show’s how vulnerable Smith is."

Smith’s people declined to answer specific questions about the campaign, or comment on the Senator’s level of vulnerability, but a spokesman offered this boilerplate statement: “Senator Smith is prepared to run against whoever emerges from the Democratic primary, and he will take that candidate seriously,” the spokesman said. He is preparing right now to stage a very aggressive reelection campaign.”

When pressed further, this spokesman insisted on offering only variations on that same statement.

Novick’s campaign has been forced to endure some criticism lately for employing what Merkley supporters have characterized as “smear-tactics”, but Jake Weigler, Novick’s spokesman, says that despite the fact his candidate has aggressively challenged Merkley’s record - in particular a 2003 vote praising the Iraq invasion – their real target still remains Gordon Smith.

“Look, we’re not trying for a negative campaign,” Weigler said. “I think that both candidates in this race would be a marked improvement, over Gordon Smith, and I think that what we’ll continue to do in this primary is to make distinctions between the two candidates – while we think Jeff Merkley is good, we think Steve Novick is better,” he said.

Many Democratic insiders have expressed fears that a contentious primary race could potentially weaken the ultimate nominee in the general election campaign, an argument Weigler dismisses.

“I’d say that it’s actually the exact opposite,” Weigler said. “The primary is an opportunity for both of these candidates to refine and test their message and mettle, and if past experience is any indication, Gordon Smith will have no qualms with going aggressively against any opponent he faces in the general election,” he said, adding that the campaign enjoys its “outsider” status.

There’s no doubt Merkley has some big name establishment endorsements --Gov. Kulongoski, and former Gov. Barbara Roberts are his campaign co-chairs -- but Miller says the DSCC, as usual, will stay out of the endorsement game until after the primary.

“We have not endorsed, and we typically do not, but Gordon Smith is certainly vulnerable, and we feel good about the race,” he said.