Democrats shed doubt on Riley Research poll

The campaign for U.S. Senate candidate John Frohnmayer, who is running on the Independent ticket, is aggressively pushing out to reporters today a Riley Research poll finding that in a prosepctive general election race, Republican incumbent Gordon Smith receives 39%, with Frohnmayer picking up 14% - ahead of Democrat Jeff Merkley, who receives 12%. The poll of 401 Oregon voters was conducted between November 30 and December 12. It has a margin of error of 4.89%.

But Democrats express reservations about Michael Riley’s research. Advisers said that the poll – taken over a span of several weeks as opposed to the customary several days – fail to produce a “snapshot” of the electorate. “401 voters contacted over 13 days is some of the worst basic methodology I've seen in a long time,” said one Democratic campaign aide.

A Democratic operative who is not working for Senate candidate but who is experienced in Oregon campaigns and is familiar with Reilly’s methods said that the pollster’s method often skews conservative and screens for older voters – a “country club” segment of the state’s population, as the operative put it.

The operative, who worked on Democrat Ted Kulongoski’s campaign for governor in 2006, said that Reilly’s polling in that race was inadequate. While Kulongoski internal polling found the Democrat solidly ahead, a poll released as late as October 3, 2006 found Republican candidate Ron Saxton leading Kulongoski 39% to 37%. Kulongoski would win the race 51% to 43%.

Riley’s Web site says the company polls for a variety of industries, including advertising, government, retail, and healthcare. But Democrats say that Riley is focused on conservative, business-oriented interests.

That the poll released today was commissioned by Frohnmayer’s Independent Party is perhaps one of the most significant reasons to be dismissive of the survey, said Matt Miller, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Frohnmayer defended the poll in an interview with PolitickerOR.com today, saying that Reilly was a well-known and respected Oregon pollster. “I have no reason to question his partiality,” said Frohnmayer, the former head of the National Endowment of the Arts.

Frohnmayer said that his campaign “was pleased with the results” of the poll, which showed him drawing support across party lines.

“The time is right for an independent who is not affiliated,” he said.

“It was a bit of a surprise that John received that big a response,” Independent Party activist Sal Peralta said of the poll. “But, at the same time, he’s speaking to a lot of issues that Oregonians are concerned with – especially holding the Bush administration accountable.”