Erickson may be out; Marks definitely in

Some Republican insiders suggest that Mike Erickson could drop his bid for Congress in the fifth district, clearing the field for Kevin Mannix to seek the open seat held for the last 12 years by Democrat Darlene Hooley. Republican polling shows Mannix with a substantial lead over Erickson, and with strong approvals among GOP primary voters. While Erickson can self-fund a primary effort, he faces an uphill battle to topple Mannix, a former legislator and GOP State Chairman who came within three percentage points of winning his bid for governor six years ago.

The 45-year-old Erickson has obvious political aspirations, and seems concerned about the possibility of losing two elections efore ever serving in public office. In 2006, he lost to Hooley by a 54%-43% margin, and despite being a self-funder, Hooley still outspent him by about $200,000 (thanks to her friends at the DCCC).

The Hooley seat is among the best prospects for the pickup of an open Democratic seat, and national GOP leaders want to avoid an expensive and nasty primary that could jeopardize their chances in November. Republicans haven't held the seat since Hooley ousted one-term incumbent Jim Bunn in 1996.

It appears Democrats were unable to clear the path for current candidate, Kurt Schrader, as Kitzhaber policy wonk Steve Marks has just announced his candidacy for the fifth. It appears the Dem pols who complained of Schrader's less than enthusiastic record for traditional liberal supporters (big labor, trial lawyers and teachers) were able to convince Marks to get into a primary battle, thus potentially costing Democrats the edge heading into the general election. Marks is garnering help from Joe Trippi of Howard Dean and John Edwards fame.