Heading to the stretch, Novick camp says it sees a path to victory

When veteran pollster Bob Meadow joined Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick’s campaign last year, he had some concerns.

One was that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Meadow felt, was standing behind primary opponent Jeff Merkley, the Oregon House Speaker. The committee’s chair, New York Senator Chuck Schumer, had a way of pushing for what he wanted and Meadow feared that Schumer would find a way to push Novick aside.

Another concern was that the Novick campaign had not yet developed a full infrastructure. It often seemed as if Jake Weigler, Novick’s energetic campaign manager who had previously worked as a press secretary for Governor Ted Kulongoski and research director at Media Matters for America, was everywhere at once.

But today Meadow says he sees a path to victory for Novick, an attorney and political activist who is in his first run for public office.

“Now I am convinced we are going to win,” Meadow says.

It is a view that reflects the Novick campaign’s optimistic outlook. Novick aides know they will have to fight to pull off a victory against the better-funded Merkley, but they say momentum is on their side and that, perhaps now more than ever, a victory seems possible.

Public polling in the race has been limited. But the existing data - a Riley Research Poll conducted in late January showing Novick leading Merkley 12%-9% and a poll conducted by Lake Research for the Novick campaign in early February showing Novick leading Merkley 16%-11% - provides some degree of comfort to the Novick team.

The Novick campaign started out as a campaign that was, generally speaking, an anti-establishment effort. But today aides say they have also been able to win the support of mainstream, establishment-minded voters. And in an interview, Novick was quick to point out that he had won the support of elected officials and people in the business community.

“We’ve run an outside-in campaign,” Weigler says.

The campaign credits much of the broadened appeal to its television advertisements, one of which features Novick, standing at less than five feet, promising to “fight for the little guy” and another showing the candidate opening a beer with the hook that replaces his missing left hand.

“They are different, they are funny, and they are substantive,” Novick said.

Meadow said the Steve Eichenbaum -produced spots, which together have about 125,000 views on YouTube, have succeeded in creating a “buzz element” for the campaign. What people find appealing about the advertisements, Meadow argued, was that they are at once self-deprecating, funny, and sensitive - and show Novick to be a “different” kind of politician.

“People are so fed up with politics as usual that if you can break through the typical rhetoric it goes over well,” says Weigler.

Novick declined to discuss the advertisements his campaign would run in the coming weeks, but Meadow said to expect spots of the same edgy type.

“The advertisements that we are going to be doing are creative, buzz-creating, and different,” he said.

What has also helped the campaign, aides say, is Novick’s savvy positioning on issues such as social security and global warming.

Meadow explained that Novick has found mainstream support on a wide range of issues, but he has been speaking about those issues in a way that demonstrates aggressiveness and feistiness that non-traditional voters find appealing.

“His positions are inside positions,” Meadow says. “But he does it in ways that are outside.”

The Novick campaign also believes it has convinced the political insider set – especially those in the Oregon and Washington media - that it can run a smart political campaign.

“What is happening is that smart political observers are realizing that we are running a smart political campaign,” said Novick.

The campaign says the buzz has come in part from the landing of endorsements from former Governor John Kitzhaber and the Oregon Education Association – steals, the campaign says, that have meaningful political reach.

The campaign has also been aided by what it says is the establishment-oriented campaign run by the Merkley team.

"Our opponents have run a very pedestrian, Beltway-style campaign based on endorsements," Weigler said.

Novick pointed to the Merkley campaign’s attacks on his 1996 support for Green Party presidential candidate Ralph Nader and his position on social security.

“He is playing politics as usual in an ineffective way,” said Novick.

Merkley spokesman Matt Canter disagreed with the assessment, saying that the Merkley campaign has been about “bringing Democrats together in order to defeat Gordon Smith,” and charging that the Novick side has run a negative, divisive campaign.

“The Novick campaign has used every ounce of energy to attack and offers no vision on bringing people together to change this country,” Canter said.

Canter also said that before entering the race, Novick was a political consultant, and he disputed the idea that the Novick side was running a campaign that was genuinely different.

“Steve Novick has run a campaign like a political consultant,” Canter said, charging that Novick had changed his position on social security from 2004 “for his own political gain.”

Merkley is expected to have a cash advantage heading into the final ten weeks of the campaign, and in that time his campaign will for the first time hit the airwaves with advertisements that, campaign insiders say, will introduce the candidate to voters.

It is a period of time during the campaign that could prove definitive.

Novick says he will be able to sustain support through the Merkley media offensive largely by playing offense and winning media attention in mainstream and non-mainstream outlets.

Asked what specific moves his campaign would make in the coming weeks, Novick laughed.

“The only answer to that is stay tuned. You won’t be bored.”