Polls differ on presidential; PPP has Novick, Kroger up

On the eve of the Oregon primary, two new polls are showing differing pictures of tomorrow night’s results.

A Suffolk University poll has Sen. Hillary Clinton closing in on rival Sen. Barack Obama, 45 to 41 percent, with a four point margin of error.

Suffolk interviewed 600 likely voters in Oregon, and found the Senators to be competitive for female votes, an important demographic for Clinton.

Public Policy Polling found a different story: Obama leading Clinton 56 to 38 percent with a 2.7 percent margin of error. They also found Obama leading Clinton with women voters, which led the PPP to conclude it is “nearly impossible for Clinton to win.”

PPP President Dean Debnam compared Oregon to Wisconsin. “[Obama] started out with a small lead there, then built it into the upper double figures as election day came nearer,” he said. “Anything other than a double digit victory for him would be a surprise, and a disappointment for his campaign.”

Public Policy Polling, which employed an automated poll to survey 1,296 likely voters, also addressed the statewide races.

They found Steve Novick leading House Speaker Jeff Merkley 38 to 33 percent, but the advantage is within the poll’s margin of error.

Numbers for the Attorney General’s race were a bit clearer. John Kroger, at 42 percent had an eleven point lead over Rep. Greg Macpherson. PPP also found Sen. Kate Brown tromping her rivals in the Secretary of State race, with 42 percent. Sen. Rick Metsger had 19 percent and Sen. Vicki Walker garnered 17 percent.

Both polls were conducted May 17-18.