May 10, 2008 - 5:56pm
Smith leads, barely
By Wally EdgeDespite the conventional wisdom that Gordon Smith is a strong bet for re-election this fall, a new Rasmussen Reports poll shows the Republican U.S. Senator us still below the 50% level of support mark, and has him with just a single digit lead over his potential Democratic challengers. Smith leads House Speaker Jeff Merkley by 3 points, 45%-42%, and is ahead of lawyer Steve Novick by 6 points, 47%-41%. In February, Smith led Merkley by 18 points and Novick by 13.
Smith is viewed favorably by 55% of the state’s voters, Novick by 46%, and Merkley by 42%. The numbers for both Democrats are trending up. Those figures include just 18% with a Very Favorable opinion of their incumbent Senator. 13% have a Very Favorable view of Novick while 9% say the same about Merkley. At the other extreme, 16% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Smith while 14% say the same about each Democrat.
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conventional wisdom?
Whose conventional wisdom are you referring to that Smith is a strong bet for reelection? Maybe among Republicans and the Oregonian. But certainly not among political professionals, who can look at trends in polling and partisan registration and know that Smith's on the ropes. Hence his effort to hand-pick his challenge Steve Novick by running highly misleading negative ads against Merkley.
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