May 23, 2008 - 10:56am
Odds-on favorites for November
By Wally Edge
Category: President, US Senate, House, LocalTags: John McCain, Barack Obama, John Kroger, Gordon Smith, Steve Novick, Jeff Merkley, Kate Brown, Ron Saxton, Kevin Mannix, Mike Erickson, Ben Westlund, Kurt Schrader, Allen Alley, Rick DancerTop Story: Opinion
Now that the primary dust is beginning to settle, many pundits are speculating which candidates will be victorious in November. Here is the "conventional wisdom" being spread at the start of this general election season.
With Barack Obama the likely Democratic nominee at this point, it looks like Oregon will remain blue in the upcoming presidential fight. John McCain's pro-war stance plays very poorly in the Portland metro area and in the valley. He will need to convince every independent that staying in Iraq is a sound policy. This state goes to Obama in November.
Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith is going to win handily against Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. After struggling through the primary against Steve Novick and being pushed down to the second tier on the DSCC target list, Merkley will have a very tough time against Smith's big bank account and popularity with moderate Democrats and independents.
Despite his own personal wealth, GOP congressional candidate Mike Erickson is widely considered damaged goods in the 5th CD contest. He narrowly lost to primary opponent Kevin Mannix when allegations of abortion and drug use surfaced eight days prior to election day. Democratic nominee Kurt Schrader is seen by many as a moderate Democrat with his own personal wealth and the DCCC cannot afford to lose this seat. Expect considerable national attention in this swing district.
The race for Secretary of State is all but over. Democrat Kate Brown won handily in the primary after raising big cash from several liberal organizations. Expect the same to come in the general against GOP political novice Rick Dancer. Unless Dancer can compete with Brown on money raised and make Gordon Smith his new best friend when traveling around the state, Brown will be Oregon's second in command come next January.
Dem nominee John Kroger is all but certain to be Oregon's next Attorney General. Some Republicans are still holding out to see who received 12,000 write-in votes in the primary. However, former gubernatorial candidate Ron Saxton already went on the record declining any interest in the job. Unless the GOP has a name they can put some money behind, this race is done.
The race for State Treasurer between Democrat Ben Westlund and Republican Allen Alley. Westlund who has serious plans for the governor's office in 2010 will do all he can to ride the Democratic "change" wave this November, while Alley is widely expected to unload much of his personal wealth earned during his days as CEO of Pixelworks. This race leans towards Westlund, but Alley could put up a good fight.
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Jeff Merkley
Nice armchair quarterbacking. Except I really disagree with you on the Senate race, and I think the current stats back me up.
In the most recent polling, Jeff Merkley is statistically tied with Gordon Smith, 45-42. Smith also has horrendous job approval numbers, at 29 percent. He's not popular with regular Oregonians; that's his myth that he wants people to believe. And that doesn't sound like someone who's going to win handily, let alone win.
Sure, Smith's got a war chest, and it'll be a tough fight to win, but it's a fight Democrats can win. With Obama at the top of the ticket and a blue wave, anything's possible. In addition, Jeff has played extremely well outside of the Portland metro area (it's how he won). When Democrats go for him in Portland, and if he can continue to play outside of the city, look for him to be extremely competitive.
Smith odds-on favorite?
How can a Republican candidate with an approval rating below 50% and statistically tied with his Democratic opponent be the odds-on favorite? Even Smith's deep pockets won't save him this election year. Smith already dumped 1/2 million into attacking Merkley before the primary and that didn't stop Merkley from catching up to Smith in the polls.
Jeff Merkley is polling well among moderates and conservatives and has a great statewide operation built up. The more voters learn about Merkley and his record in the House, the more they like him. IMO, the odds-on favorite in this race is Jeff Merkley.
Fact Check time
The DSCC dropped Oregon down to it's 2nd tier the day after the April 7th SurveyUSA poll showed Merkley trailing Novick.
A month later the DSCC ponied up a fair amount of money to run TV ads against Smith as Smith dropped a cool half million in attack ads against Merkley. Most of the DSCC's investment came after a later SurveyUSA poll showed Merkley with a decent lead.
All indications are that the DSCC is VERY serious about defeating Gordon Smith.
With respect to moderate Dems and Independents... look at where Merkley won and you quickly realize that his strength is with moderate Dems and Independents.
Occam's Razor simply doesn't support Wally's lame hypothesis.
Look at Smith's Terrible Numbers
Have to agree with what other commentators have posted. Smith is in serious trouble. Being under 50% and in a statistical tie with a challenger who has just won a very hard fought primary (because many saw Novick and Merkley as strong progressives and most had a hard time choosing) spells trouble for Smith, not Merkley.
The fact that Smith had to drop over a half million so far in attack ads against Merkley while he was still in the primary is a a big tell in just how soft Smith's re-elects are.
Senate Race
The reality is that 2008 will be a tough year for Republicans everywhere and Gordon Smith's re-election is not a given, but is very likely. If Democrats had been able to field a stronger candidate, this race would look very different. Jeff Merkley is not a strong candidate, in fact, he's a very weak one. If anyone thinks he's going to do well outside of Portland, they don't know much about Oregon or Jeff Merkley. The fact that he won rural counties in a Democratic primary against an even more liberal candidate from Portland, is not evidence of his strength in rural regions in a general election.
As for Smith, his approval rating is at 55% (unless you are inept enough to fall for the DSCC poll..see Jeff Mapes discussion of that sham). He has cross appeal to Dems and Reps. Jeff Merkley will not win this race, a Defazio/Kitz type certainly might have.
Sorry, man
Jeff Merkley's not a weakling and won't be a pushover for Smith. People see his effective record as Speaker of the House, and that will go far in winning of everyday Oregonians.
He's got his strengths, and he'll put the fight to Smith. Just you watch and let him prove you wrong. He proved a lot of Oregonians wrong, after all, when he flipped the House from red to blue and then succeeded in passing lots of progressive legislation in Salem.
Get Serious Kid
Wow, ben. If you're actually falling back on the "merkley flipped the house" argument..you really have no business commenting on politics..i'm actually embarrassed for you.
The state house flipped in '06 b/c of the Dem tide everywhere..not b/c of Merkley..stop kidding yourself. I'm not saying Smith is a sure thing, but with depth of the Dem bench in Oregon..the fact that Merkley is the nominee is shocking and absurd. He is a horrendous candidate..one of the worst orators I've seen, and has a record that will not get him elected state-wide..the man is a joke and even his supporters know it. This is not debatable. I'm not trying to tear the man down..i'm sure he's a good guy..but a disaster as a candidate. He will never be a US Senator..end of discussion.
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