The path to Congress looks good for state Senator Kurt Schrader. For the first time in decades there are more registered Democrats in the swing district being vacated by retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley. Schrader's opponent, businessman Mike Erickson, has been playing defense with the Oregon press since the primary election and his attacks on Schrader are nothing more than cookie cutter negative ads on raising taxes.
Should Schrader make it to congress the looming question is who will fill his vacant spot in the Oregon Senate? Oregon law mandates someone from the incumbent member’s party be chosen, so we know it will be a Democrat. Names currently being thrown around include House Majority Leader Dave Hunt, County Commissioners Lynn Peterson and Martha Schrader (wife of the congressional candidate), and Democratic House candidate Toby Forsberg.
Since Clackamas county commissioners will make the initial decision which is then passed on to the governor’s office, the idea of either Peterson or Schrader nominating themselves brings its own conflict of interest issues. Hunt is likely not going anywhere unless a revolt in his Democratic caucus surfaces and he loses his bid for the Speaker’s gavel. Finally, Forsberg’s name being mentioned suggests his House race against Commissioner Bill Kennemer is more of an uphill challenge than expected.
The most likely scenario is
The most likely scenario is that Toby Forsberg wins the House seat, Forsberg is then appointed to the vacant Senate seat in November or December, and then a new Democrat is appointed to the vacant House seat before the session begins.
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