Best hopes for the Oregon GOP this Tuesday

Democrat Barack Obama is a done deal in Oregon.  Independent polls have him ahead of Republican John McCain by 15 to 19 points in the Beaver State and the McCain campaign has packed it up and funneled all resources to the swing states.  It appears Democrats are making great strides across the state and are expecting to pick up several seats in the Oregon House and maintain a majority in the Oregon Senate.  With the blue tidal wave expected to rush over the entire state Tuesday night, many political junkies are wondering if there is any glimmer of hope for the Oregon GOP this election cycle.  Well, here are a few potential upsets they might want to keep their fingers crossed for.

1.  Gordon Smith keeps his US Senate seat.  The incumbent Republican is down in virtually all independent and Democratic polls and ahead in only one internal poll done by Oregon GOP pollster Bob Moore (who has questionable credibility according to some).  Pundits across the country are watching this race closely to see if Democrats get their highly coveted 60 seat supermajority and most are foreseeing victory for Democrat Jeff Merkley in their crystal balls.  Smith could pull off a win tomorrow night, but I think many Oregon insiders would be somewhat surprised.

2.  Mike Erickson wins the fifth congressional district.  The Lake Oswego Republican is down by 24 points in the latest poll released in that district and no one expects Democrat Kurt Schrader to take a loss on this one.  However, NBC’s Chuck Todd called this race a “potential bright spot for the GOP” and the Washington Post is calling it a “close race.”  Perhaps they know something most politically astute Oregonians don’t.

3.  Rick Dancer becomes Oregon’s next Secretary of State.  Democrat Kate Brown is largely expected to win the SoS seat, however, she did take for granted her GOP opponent’s political newcomer status and took it easy in the general election after a tough four-way primary campaign in May.  In the last month of the campaign conservative interests dumped huge amounts into Dancer’s campaign kitty enabling him to blanket the television airwaves.  Brown raised $65,000 from the liberal leaning Secretary of State Project in the last few weeks to stay competitive.  A victory for Dancer could have severe implications for the ambitious goals Democrats have with re-districting.

4.  Allen Alley beats Ben Westlund in the race for Oregon State Treasurer.  This race was a bit unusual.  Alley is a Republican who worked for Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski.  Westlund is a Republican-turned-Independent-turned-Democrat state Senator who was hit hard in the final days of the election with allegations of cocaine possession, sexual harassment and a DUI conviction from his earlier days in office.  Alley was out-raised by Westlund even after Alley loaned his campaign nearly $200,000, however, polls show this race tighter than any other down ballot race.  An Alley victory would crown him the party’s new titular head and also make him a likely candidate for governor in 2010.

5.  Laurie Monnes Anderson loses her Gresham state senate seat.  This is probably the biggest long shot on this list, but some Republicans have high hopes for challenger Dave Kim.  Republicans in the senate are expecting to pick up senate district 27 currently held by Democrat Ben Westlund, but a win by Kim against Deputy Majority Leader Monnes Anderson would be a huge political shocker to many.

6.  Andy Duyck edges out incumbent David Edwards.  This race fell way below the radar compared to all the other races targeted by Oregon House Democrats, but it does present a slight opportunity for a House GOP pick-up.  Duyck knocking out Edwards is extremely unlikely given the current political climate, but there are a few insiders predicting a very close race in this district.

7.  Oregon House Democrats do not obtain a supermajority.  Democrats need 36 seats in the Oregon House to reach a supermajority, allowing them to raise taxes without going to the ballot first.  Most politicos have the House Dems picking up anywhere from five to seven seats which would put them well over what they need, but Republicans are doing all they can to protect their vulnerable incumbents like Linda Flores and Charles Burley and keep the Democrats at 34 or lower.   There are high expectations by Democrats to gain a supermajority on Tuesday, although how long they keep it for is the next big question.